12 May Wind + Solar is Not the Lowest Cost Way to Net Zero
Wind + Solar $482Bn | Solar + Nuclear $422Bn
Australia’s official plan to reach net zero by 2050 is built on the AEMO ‘Renewables 2050’ roadmap. It proposes a massive rollout of wind and solar backed by storage, flexible gas, and expanded transmission. The projected capital cost? $482 billion.
However, when we adjust the inputs to reflect the real-world performance of wind and solar — as seen in actual capacity factors — an alternative strategy that incorporates nuclear emerges as not only more compact and reliable, but also cheaper. That hybrid Solar + Nuclear pathway delivers the same 60 GW of firm, dispatchable power for $422 billion — saving $60 billion.
Lower-than-expected capacity factors for solar and wind — due to weather variability, siting, and curtailment — mean more generation or more storage is needed than initially forecast. Offshore wind hasn’t yet been built in Australia, but global data suggests expectations may also be optimistic.
Transmission and Storage Infrastructure
The renewables-only scenario also assumes 10,000 km of new transmission and $90 billion in utility storage. By contrast, the nuclear-inclusive system needs just 5,000 km of transmission and no additional storage — reducing complexity, footprint, and cost.
Conclusion
If Australia is to reach net zero reliably and affordably, planners must move beyond idealised models and face operational realities. Solar + Nuclear offers a clearer, leaner, and lower-cost pathway. It’s time we gave it serious policy consideration.
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