30 Apr Darkness over Iberia
On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal suffered one of the most significant grid failures in modern European history. More than 55 million people were affected, and essential infrastructure including transport, telecommunications, and healthcare systems experienced critical disruptions.
Within seconds, Spain lost ~15 GW of generation capacity, causing grid frequency to plunge from the standard 50 Hz to 49 Hz. This triggered automatic protective shutdowns across power stations and transmission lines.
Renewables supply about 80% of electricity in Iberia. The grid lacked sufficient inertia and dispatchable backup to respond to the sharp frequency deviation, exacerbating the instability.
Portugal, highly dependent on imports from Spain, was quickly drawn into the cascade failure. Both countries lacked adequate grid-forming inverters, battery storage, and flexible backup generation to absorb the shock.
A critical high-voltage interconnector between Spain and France failed, eliminating external support to stabilize frequency.
Extreme inland heat created oscillations in long-distance transmission lines—a rare but real phenomenon that may have helped trigger desynchronization. There were at least five deaths, including individuals dependent on medical devices and others caught in fire incidents. There were estimated losses of €2.25 to €4.5 billion, impacting industries like manufacturing, logistics, and food processing. Trains, airports, and metros halted mid-operation; border systems failed. Cell towers, ATMs, and emergency communication systems went down in large areas rendering emergency services virtually useless.
A moderate share of nuclear in the energy mix could have significantly mitigated or even prevented the blackout because nuclear plants provide inertial stability. Their massive turbines contribute rotating mass to the grid, helping maintain frequency. They also run continuously, providing consistent output that doesn’t fluctuate with weather and nuclear power stations are resistant to cascading shutdowns that affect lighter, less stable generation sources.
What Percentage of Nuclear Would Help? To estimate a stabilizing nuclear share, consider the following:
Spain and Portugal consume ~300 TWh/year of electricity. To counteract a 15 GW instantaneous loss, the system needs at least 10–12 GW of stable, inertia-providing capacity available at all times. A nuclear share of 20–25% of total generation (~60–75 TWh/year) equivalent to 7–9 GW of operational nuclear capacity would likely have maintained grid stability or at least greatly slowed the collapse, giving operators time to intervene.
France (which avoided cascade effects despite being linked) has ~63 GW of nuclear providing ~70% of electricity. Its grid is notably more stable due to this consistent baseload.
The blackout highlights the fragility of high-renewable systems without adequate grid stabilizers. While renewables are essential for decarbonization, they must be complemented by reliable, dispatchable generation. Spain and Portugal should aim for at least 20–25% nuclear share to ensure resilience.
This should be a wakeup call to Australians who think they can achieve net zero in 2050 with 213 GW of wind and solar backed up by 22 GW of gas. There is no help from next door in Australia. We need a nuclear strategy and we need it before our coal fired backup is decommissioned.
David Wilson
Posted at 05:35h, 02 MayThe Iberian Blackout: A Wake-Up Call Australia Can’t Ignore
On a sunny spring afternoon in late April, the Iberian Peninsula was plunged into darkness. A massive blackout struck Spain and Portugal, disrupting transportation, communications, hospitals, and homes. In a matter of minutes, tens of millions were affected by the collapse of a grid system long regarded as modern and robust.
Initial reports suggest the cascade began in southwestern Spain, where a sudden drop in solar output — possibly due to fast-moving cloud cover or inverter failure — triggered a chain reaction of power loss. While investigations are ongoing, what is already clear is this: even advanced, renewables-rich grids are vulnerable without adequate backup and stabilising infrastructure.
European Countries Can Fall Back on Its Neighbours
For all the chaos, Europe had one crucial advantage: interconnectedness. The European grid is among the most integrated in the world, allowing countries to import and export electricity across borders. When Portugal’s western grid began to wobble, support from Spain’s interior — and beyond — helped stabilise the system. Within hours, backup from neighbouring grids helped restore service to key areas.
Australia Can’t
Australia, by contrast, is an energy island. We have no neighbouring nations to draw emergency power from in the event of a large-scale grid failure. Our east coast National Electricity Market (NEM) stretches thousands of kilometres but is bounded by ocean. If something goes wrong — a line trip, a generator collapse, a frequency drop — there is no continental backup. We are on our own. This makes the Iberian blackout an especially stark warning for us.
The Risks of an Unbalanced Transition
Australia’s transition to renewable energy is underway, with rapid growth in solar and wind generation. But this transition has often been pursued with insufficient attention to the need for firming and backup capacity. As more coal and gas plants are retired, the grid’s resilience is increasingly reliant on variable renewable output — often in the absence of large-scale storage, fast-start generation, or grid inertia. The Iberian event shows how quickly things can unravel when intermittent power sources are not properly buffered.
What Needs to Be Done
Battery systems, synchronous condensers, and advanced control technologies can help maintain frequency and voltage when renewables dominate. Gas is filling some of the gap, but Australia must consider all zero-emission options — including nuclear — to ensure secure, on-demand power. Pumped hydro, hydrogen, and thermal storage systems are needed to cover renewable lulls lasting hours or days.
Unlike Europe, Australia must build redundancy into its grid as if help will never come — because it won’t. Connecting renewable-rich regions to demand centres requires new transmission corridors and digitalised grid control.
Time to Get Serious
The Iberian blackout is more than a foreign incident — it is a mirror. Australia must take a sober look at its energy future. We cannot copy Europe’s path wholesale because we lack its geographical advantages. If we are to lead on clean energy, we must also lead on energy resilience. And that means building a system that can stand alone — because in the moment of crisis, it will have to.
The lights went out in Lisbon and Madrid and five people on life support died. Let’s make sure they don’t go out in Sydney and Melbourne.
George Papaconstantinos
Posted at 00:07h, 12 JuneHello David,
I am George (From our BCN group chat in the emails updates from Graham McGarry) and fellow shareholder.
I have thoroughly enjoyed reading your post about this recent power blackout in Spain and Portugal which I had not even heard of until reading your very educated summation of events….. Our MSM hardly covers even Major events like these unless it happens in the USA….
I followed your .com address over to here and I thoroughly understand your explanation of the Power Grid as I worked in the Port Kembla BlueScope steel works for 43.5yrs and 42yrs in the Power Station in between #5 and #6 Blast Furnaces, supplying all the services to the needs of the steelworks including blowing the Blast Furnaces with high pressured air for the making of the pig iron in each furnace…………Needless to say, I sure as hell know a lot of what you have spoken about.
The picture of #6 Blast Furnace being restored/refurbished was the very same view of my walk in to work for my every shift, (Day, Afternoon and Nightshifts for 42 of those years)
I actually live near SHELLHARBOUR between the coast, The Marina, and 5mins from the Airport. Near the southern end of Lake Illawarra at Oak Flats.
I have had serious 2nd thoughts on the issues of going to net zero 2050…..I don’t think its at all possible without serious battery storages of power and far MORE HYDRO standby power…..plus, dare I say it, NUCLEAR which I have always been opposed to…..
YES we are a nation with no power help needs as we are isolated from any power grid external of our Country,
The last BIG blackout event that I learned about in some detail was the USA East Coast black out from a power station in New York State(I think) which tripped and there were no isolating grid connectors to stop the flow on effect….therefore taking the whole east coast out to Florida.(I think)
You have given me an enlightened view with your written article of The Iberian Blackout.
I also read a lot of your BLOG….I was fascinated with your flying journeying to Perth via the coast and back home again via the central Australian route through and over the flooded channel country and the Cooper and Diamentina in flood….
My oil and gas company (#1 Substantial shareholder) in RedSky Energy (ROG) are anxiously awaiting the floodwaters to recede and be able to commence further drilling for gas and another small pipeline gas and condensates connection to the grid near Innamincka.
I also remember the day you arrived at Kalgoorlie when Graham McGarry met you at the airport to take you on a tour of Jaurdie Mine.
He told me on the phone that he had to get off the phone and get driving out to the airport to meet up with an investor to show him the mine as he was flying in on his own plane……..I said “Well he must be a VIP and I hope he buys a lot of beacon shares, get going”…..hahahaahaaaa….WOW, it was you!!…hows that for a small world…
Anyways, I’ll leave you be…..
Cheers and regards
George Papaconstantinos